Thursday, July 22, 2010

Rwanda: Forget 2010 poll, the real thing is in 2017

Asuman Bisiika

On August 9, Rwanda will go to polls and President Kagame is expected to win
By Asuman Bisiika ON August 9, Rwandans will head for second universal suffrage elections after the 1994 genocide. The general assumption is that President Paul Kagame will easily sail through. Whether Kagame wins because he is popular or not is beside the point. What is clear is that Kagame and his Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) derive their legitimacy as critical political players in Rwanda from a double mandate: the RPF’s character of a liberation movement and the stopping of the Rwanda genocide. Against this background, elections or any other political or civil actions, are mere administrative processes. Indeed, if any aspect of national civics like press freedom, human rights and other civic processes does not feed into Kubohoza (liberation) and Itsemba Bwoko (Genocide), it is unlikely to take root as a national narrative. That is why there are always allegations (accusations) of deficiencies in human rights and democracy in Rwanda. The Rwanda Patriotic Front On October 1, 1990, a band of armed Rwandan refugees made a third attempt to return to Rwanda. They were fighting under the banner of RPF. However, given the revolutionary momentousness of the early 1990s, the homecoming was couched in revolutionary verbiage. The RPF struggle adopted the character of a national liberation movement aimed at liberating the whole country from what they called the dictatorial clutches of the Habyarimana regime. This message resonated with the nascent political opposition inside Rwanda led by Mr. Faustin Twagiramungu’s Democratic Republican Movement. Although the character of a national liberation movement may have wittingly worked during the struggle, it placed a burden on the shoulders of the RPF to behave as such when in power: a mass movement. And like any liberation movement, the character of the RPF and its ideological outlook as an organisation was very much influenced by the person and personality of Kagame. He took over the RPF command at a very challenging time and led it to success: toppling the Habyarimana government and stopping the genocide. Whatever his shortcomings, no one can take away that feat from Kagame. However, we are yet to see his biggest achievement. Third term or not? President Kagame will constitutionally not be eligible to stand for office in 2017. From the time he takes the oath of office after this August poll to the last day of the term, the question will always be: will or will he not seek a third term in office? In a recent interview with Daily Monitor, Kagame gave a winding and very un-Kagameish answer when he was asked about the issue of presidential term limits and whether he would seek a third term in office. He did not say no, but made a lengthy explanation. But there will be no surprise if he sought a third term of office. He would, after all, not be the first president to do it. But because we cynics expect (or we would not be surprised if) Kagame to seek a third term, the most exciting scenario will be if he chooses to leave power. How would he relate with the new government? Without Kagame, can the RPF win an election? If the RPF won, what role would Kagame play in national politics? Who are the likely candidates to succeed him? From Kagame to who The four well-placed people likely to replace or influence the process of replacing President Kagame are Dr. Emmanuel Ndahiro, the director general of the National Security Services (NASS), Gen. James Kabarebe, minister for defence, James Musoni, minister for local government (also Kagame’s political assistant on RPF matters) and Lt. Col. Tom Byabagambi, commandant of the republican guard. Kagame and his son Ivan Cyomoro Kagame are also likely to be part of (factors in) the jostling. It is also a safe bet to say that Mrs. Janet Kagame is likely to join active politics if her husband leaves power. In the second tier is Protais Musoni (no relation to James Musoni), Don Kaberuka (president of the African Development Bank), Christopher Bazivamo (minister responsible for environment), Gen. Charles Kayonga, the joint army chief and Bernard Makuza, the prime minister. However, if Kagame left power in 2017, he would remain RPF’s party chairman. And before he leaves power, RPF would amend its constitution to strengthen the party chairman’s position. The party (or actually Kagame) would then exercise effective control (ok, supervision) of the government like the ANC of South Africa. Kagame, as RPF party chairman, would, therefore, still hold power legally structured and exercised as ‘party supervision over government’.
What’s Africa’s role, nay relevance, in global security?
The relevance and challenges of the African Union in global and national security


Paper presented by at Pan-African Club in Kampala on Friday July 16, 2010

All Protocol Observed

Ladies and Gentlemen

I would like to first of all express my heart felt gratitude for your invitation. It can be energising to present a paper to such a rich audience and I must confess I take a lot of pride in associating with you and sharing ideas with you.

This paper is divided into five broader parts. The first part deals with Africa as an idea and the factual existence of Africa as a land mass. The second deals with the existence of Africa as a political and economic entity in world politics and economics. The third deals with the post-independence Africa while the rest deal with the challenges of the African nationhood and the relevance of African in world politics, security and economics.

Africa the land mass
Africa, as we know it today, is part of the five land masses of the planet Earth. The other land masses are of South America (the reference of Latin America is a political nomenclature), North America, Asia and Australia.

The earliest recorded reference to the land mass we now know as Africa was by the Greeks, who called it Libya. However, archaeological evidence show that the earliest use of the word Africa, as the name of our continent (or part of it), is from Carthage. Carthage was founded in 814 BC by colonists from Phoenicia and is in present day Tunisia. It is no wonder that Tunisia’s national football team is the Eagles of Carthage?

Libya to the Greeks; Egypt to the Fertile Crescent of the Middle East or Africa to the Phoenicians of Carthage, knowledge of what we now know as Africa was limited to Mediterranean Africa: that is to say Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.

In 146 BC, the Romans conquered Carthage. However, they retained the name Africa and made Carthaginian territory a Roman Province. Records show that the Roman Province of Carthage was heavily urbanised.

During the second century AD, African Senators comprised the largest group from the western provinces of the Roman Empire.

The Africa Province of the Roman Empire was very significant because of the export of vast quantities of corn. Such was the wealth from Africa that the Roman Emperor personally administered the province through a Consul; not a Governor as was normal practice.

A governor in such a wealthy province would develop ideas of challenging the imperial rule in Rome. In present day Uganda, it is like President Museveni appointing the RDC to take over the powers and functions of the District Chief Administrative Officer and the District Chairman.

But all that political history is limited to Mediterranean Africa or North Africa or Al Maghreb or whatever… But we all know that the land mass called Africa stretches to South Africa’s Cape Town or Cape of Good Hope.

Africa the political body mass
In contemporary history, Africa’s first participation in global politics and economy was through trade. However, this interface was lopsided in favour of the foreigners Africa was merely the source of raw materials. The rider on this is that these raw materials were people and ivory.

Africa was a merely a passive participant; a source of slaves and ivory. Africa’s participation later expended to the exploitation mineral and other natural resources.

However, unlike slaves and ivory, the exploitation minerals and other natural resources demanded some kind of administrative regime or mechanism. Mineral exploitation could only be done under the well-cut management of the political and economic affairs of the areas from which they exploited mineral resources. That’s how the whole of Africa came to be colonised.

After WWII, the evolue (as the French referred to the graduates of the Catechist Classes of the European religious Groups) and the veterans of the two wars started challenging colonialism. This is what Afro-centric historians call the beginning of the African Revolution.

The fight against colonialism constitutes Africa’s first active and deliberate participation in shaping global politics, security and economy. However, the founding of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) remains and first self-conscious institutional (and continental) action by Africa as a player on the world platform.

Post Independence Africa in world politics
The OAU was founded in 1963 by a handful of heads of state and government from the few countries that had gained independence from European colonial powers.

The OAU was the first African strategic response to global political dynamics obtaining at the time. However, we must recognise the Pan-African Movement and its spirit of afro-centric consciousness.

If strong national governments have been sought as the necessary basis for socio-economic advancement of the African people, African unity offered the only means for overcoming the limitations of national entities. In their individual frailty, Africa states can do little to influence world powers to stop a senseless and dangerous arms race.

However, the most important thing is that many Africans still hold dear the ideals of African unity today as it was with our forefathers.

The name of the OAU may have changed to African Union and the administrative functions and structures may have changed to suit the obtaining security and political dynamics, but the strategic objectives behind the vision of a united Africa in peace and prosperity remain relevant today as it was in 1963.

How to actualise these ideals is what I see as the challenge facing the new leadership of the African continent.


The leaders of African revolution had their job cut out for them: the end of colonialism on the entire African continent. The fight against colonialism demanded a lot of national sacrifices. Frontline countries like Tanzania and Mozambique have stories to tell about the sacrifices they made.

And their achievements are there for all of us to see. By the turn of 1990, the only vestige of colonialism (as a socio-political phenomenon) was the rogue Apartheid regime in South Africa and what they called their administrative mandate in Namibia.

As we go into the second decade of the 21 century, there are no foreign powers occupying and politically managing any part of Africa. That was the achievement of our forefathers; the leaders of the first phase of the African revolution like Nyerere, Nkruma, Lumumba, Ben Bella, Toure, Abdi Nasser etc etc.

The challenge we have now is to sustain the spirit of Pan-African unity and afro-consciousness in the context global political dynamics currently obtaining.

Africa and contemporary world challenges
What are the current challenges facing Africa in the context of world politics, security and economy? To put it another way, what is the relevance of African in global politics, economy and security?

To understand Africa’s relevance to global security, one would have to first define those challenges. The biggest challenge on the continent is national security, corruption, climatic change, morbidity disease, poverty, world trade imbalances and functionally poor administration practices and structures.

It is these challenges that impact on Africa’s actions and relevance in world politics. It is these issues that affect Africa’s bargaining power in world fora on issues that are even supposed to be held dear to Africa.

The nearest to attempt to address these challenges can be traced in the change of name of the Organisation of African Unity to African Union. Because of the new global challenges, the biggest debate in Addis Ababa, the seat of the African Union, is the re-structuring of the AU Commission in order to respond the realities in continental and world politics, security and economy.

The thrust of the debate is over changing the AU Commission into the AU Authority with functional capacity and capabilities to respond to crises with limited politico-bureaucracy.

Another response has been the restructuring of the organisation. There is a clear attempt to make the AU relevant to the municipal entities that constitute Africa as a political block.

There is an African Parliament, an African Court, Security Council and several sector arms. All these are aimed at responding to current challenges.

Discussion Points
Somalia has not had a constituted government since 1992; in effect we have a classic description of as failed state in Somalia. What challenges does that state of affairs in Somalia present to African and world peace; and what role should Africa play in the stabilisation of the country?

The challenge is that some of the players in Somalia like Al Shahbab, are non-state players. This removes diplomatic recourse as one of the options for responding.

The world is now witnessing a proliferation of conflicts involving non-state armed players. Initially, these non-state players were merely protagonists in their countries’ civil wars. However, there is now a growing reality and trend of these non-state players internationalising their activities.

Uganda’s Lords Resistance Army operating is in The Sudan, DR Congo and Central African Republic; Somalia’s Al Shabab just planted bombs in Kampala.

The international nature of terrorism means that countries should not look at their interests in isolation of international politics. And that is where the African Union comes in.

As a continent we must appreciate the fact that International Peace is the result of national sacrifices some of which could be mistaken for selfish adventurist policies.

We have witnessed two attempts by Africa to resolve security and political problems since the adoption of the AU as a robust and dynamic entity to replace OAU. The first was the attempt to resolve the Darfur conflict and the second was the stabilisation of Somalia.

But none of these efforts have bore any reasonable fruits YET. The funding of these efforts is still foreign and there has been a policy position to hand over the missions in Darfur and Somalia to the United Nations.

Africa is indeed the biggest beneficiary of UN missions. Since, the establishment of the UN in 1945, Africa has been the recipient of 19 missions beginning with the Congo Crisis of 1960 to date. If you added the Tanzanian stabilisation (some people call it an invasion) of Uganda in 1979, those are twenty missions in forty years making an average of one intervention in two years.

In 1979, Tanzania executed a regime in Uganda. Although it was condemned, Tanzania went ahead with this effort which was well-received by Ugandans. In 1997, Uganda and Rwanda executed regime in Zaire, now DR Congo.

Tanzania made regime change in Uganda as response to the Uganda government’s earlier invasion of Tanzanian territory in 1978 while Uganda and Rwanda executed regime change in Zaire as a response to the frustrating use of Zairean territory as a rear base for rebels fighting Kampala and Kigali.

Since Africa hold sacred the principle of non-interference, these cases were taboo. Yet there were no continental mechanism to resolve these issues in Uganda and Zaire otherwise. Someone had to take a unilateral action and the results were well-come.

This state of affairs calls for a continental framework under which members can review national and continental security. The basis for this mechanism should be preventive rather than the famous forward-leaning attitude; conflict prevention as opposed to conflict resolution.

This can be done with the AU making a strong stand against elections thefts, military take-overs etc. And of course the mobilisation of the international community to adopt the African position on a particular case or issue. This should be followed with a resolute purposefulness.

The debate on stabilising Somalia ended in favour of troop deployment. It could have been Nigeria or Ghana or some other country with troops in Somalia; but why them, not Uganda? Or why only Uganda and Burundi? If this has been adopted as a continental matter, why then didn’t Africa have the commiserate number of troops for deployment?

How can Africa use the regional power blocks to integrate or resolve or prevent conflicts? These and other compacts in the intelligentsia are some of the debates now shaping the face of Africa in world politics and economy.

Conclusion
If one asked me the payload of this paper, I would tell him or her thus: Africa is not an ethnic or racial classification of the black people. However, there is a conventional acceptance for Africa to refer to the land mass on which we stand now and the black race.

And that Africa’s actions in world politics have been as a response to foreign powers’ actions. The first pro-active African response was as a result of the slavery of the black race and colonialism. And what does that mean? That it is time for Africa to take a pro-active action in world politics.

I would like once again to thank the organisers of this engagement for inviting me. I wish there were many of such engagements. And to my audience, thank you so much. Thank you.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

The media, public relations and publicity

By Asuman Bisiika

One of the aspects of the NSSF saga that received limited public attention was how the public relations system was deployed to manage what was surely degenerating into a crisis.

In a panicky reaction to the myriad questions raised over the circumstances under which the NSSF management bought Amama Mbabazi and Amos Nzeyi’s land in Temmangalo, NSSF’s Public Relations department executed an advertisement blitzkrieg in an attempt to sway public perceptions.

The advertisement spree was later stopped by the Parliament Committee investigating the botched land purchase. Mr. David Jamwa was later to retract a testimony he had given on oath. What confusion!

Another incident that exposed poor public relations measures was the October 14 fatal accident at a construction site managed by Roko Construction Ltd. The way Roko Construction Ltd reacted to the incident showed that the company lacked a comprehensive public relations strategy.

Journalists’ weakness
PR officers should know that without a clear PR Strategy (complete with a coded response kit), the media is involuntarily likely to deliver quotes out of context, misspellings and turn technical verbiage upside down. With the media’s general failure to appropriately capture a situation outside the usual coverage of political news, things can get worse.

Otherwise these are the few particulars of the incident at Pension Towers project site. The wall (or bank) of the excavation (pit) on (or of) the construction site of Pension Towers building project collapsed (or caved in) killing seven. The workers were re-enforcing the wall (precisely to prevent it from caving in) at the time it collapsed. Please note that before Roko Construction Ltd hands over a complete building (according to the terms of the contract) to NSSF, Pension Towers building will remain a project.

Journalism is not an exact science, but contemporary practice’s demand for accurate reportage and interpretation is exacting. I recently stormed Sunday Vision to explain the connotative phrase from which Temmangalo derives its meaning. Enkumbi temmangalo (hoeing does not cheat hands, more like enkumbi terimba). Otherwise the media had been writing Temangalo (please note the single m) which means ‘cut hands’.

PR officers should note that in Uganda, a journalist just wants a quote from a newsmaker (perhaps because the editor insisted on wide sourcing), not information to enrich a story. The moment the newsmaker delivers the quote, the journalist’s day is done.

999 PR
A panicky David Jamwa (NSSF MD) appeared at the Pension Towers building project site and drew all the attention because of NSSF’s current Temmangalo land purchase woes. Worse, he spoke off calf.

The NSSF management should have issued a statement clearly indicating the following: Expression of deep sadness over the deaths; declaration that the construction site of the Pension Towers project was handed over to Roko Construction Ltd and therefore NSSF would not be able to respond authoritatively on the particulars of the incident; NSSF expects Roko Construction Ltd to investigate the cause of the incident and come up with a report for the public consumption. For further information, refer you to Roko Construction Ltd.

For the avoidance of drawing more bad publicity to NSSF and its management, a very senior NSSF manager (not David Jamwa) like the Corporation Secretary would have read a statement to the media (of course he would be flanked by the PR Officer who should participated in the writing of the statement or personally wrote it himself). With the death of seven people, the Public Relations function should be taken over by some one more senior as an expression of remorse by the top management.

Roko Construction Ltd, which should have managed the PR responses, is now issuing very impersonal statements in the media. For better measure, the statements of sympathy should have included the names of the dead to give the PR an organic element. Or better still, Roko Construction should by now have issued relatively detailed statement on the incident.

PR Management
Most Public Relations Officers sometimes lack a clear appreciation of their roles. They confuse publicity and event management for public relations; which is why they are obsessed with publicity (visibility in the mass media) than developing comprehensive PR programmes. Other PR officers take the short cut: they buy out bad press with the threat to withdraw their advertisement portfolio in particular media outlets.

Yet they can do better than that (with minimal cost to the organisation) if there is a pro-active approach to the public concerns. One of the main objectives of any PR policy should be the creation of a critical mass of the public with a strong interest in issues related to the goods or services the organisation offers.

A PR officer should write his own news items (good enough articles to meet the editorial quality standards of media outlets) in addition to the official press statement. Given the lassitude of some journalists, this avoids misrepresentation of technical argot, misspellings and out-of-context deliveries. The news item and the official press statement should be electronic (soft copy).

Otherwise the role of the PR officer is NOT to defend the wrongs but to mobilise the publics to appreciate the context and the circumstances under which the wrongs (may have) occurred. The public knows a wrong when one occurs and defending a clear wrong makes a PR officer’s case rather untenable and silly.

abisiika@hotmail.com
Was the Garamba Mission a success?

By Asuman Bisiika

On Monday March 15, Uganda started withdrawing its troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo. This was three months since December 14 2008 when the UPDF, with the support of the Congolese and South Sudanese armies, launched a military offensive against the Lords Resistance Army rebels on Congolese soil.

The invitation of the media to cover the troop pull-out process was very conspicuous if one contrasted it with the reticence that shrouded the December 14 attack on the rebel hide out.

But now that the troops are home from what the military establishment says is a mission accomplished, it gives us the opportunity to reflect on the achievements and challenges of Operation Lighting Thunder with the benefit of hindsight.

Operation Concept
From conception, Operation Lightning Thunder carried a lot of unnecessary political baggage for a special military operation. The prospect of political capital from the expected success of the operation was so alluring that the political leadership tried to direct it from Kampala.

In special military operations like Operation Lightning Thunder, this kind of attitude by the political leadership tend to influence the dynamics of field craft (ujanja ya porini). The political leadership should have limited its involvement to endorsing and clearing the operation. The choice of Zero Hour (launch time) should have been left to the field commander in order to allow him leverage and space on field decision-making.

Unfortunately for Operation Lightning Thunder, the day the political leadership ordered Zero Hour, there was bad weather. Frustrated by bad weather, the political leadership ordered: ‘whatever-it-takes (kama mbaya mbaya), you have to launch’. This consequently robbed the operation of the elements of right equipment, right time and right target.

It could have been done otherwise though. With information of the D-Day kept tight, the operation commander would have planned for a window of a week for the launch. Within that week, the standby level would have been upgraded to RED (or whatever codes the UPDF uses). This would have given the operation commander the opportunity to factor in variables like weather, enemy troop movement or a chance opportunity for an easy harvest of a high profile target.

The political leadership would have been informed (please note the key word ‘informed’, not ‘seeking permission’ to launch) at least twenty four hours before actual launch. More like… ‘the eagle has landed’.

Managing Public Expectations
Perhaps the biggest challenge Operation Lightning Thunder faced was to manage public expectations from the operations. The attempt to keep a tight lid on information flow to the public led to some confusion.

The public expected nothing less than the capture or killing of Joseph Kony. In all honesty, this was also the main objective of the Operation Lightning Thunder. The Operation expected to achieve this through the elements of surprise, shock and awe.

But the military PR machine didn’t do a good job and left the public to feed on the ominous opinions and commentaries from people who could not articulate issues related to the operation.

The political leadership of Northern Uganda were outright against the Operation Lightning Thunder and dismissing them with gestures was not good PR. The light side of the distortions that ensued can be captured by the media writing Lightning as Lightening (there is a very big difference in spelling and meaning).

Minus the UPDF’s chest-thumping and portrayal of the military as an exclusive practice for the genius, the achievements of Operation Lightning Thunder are worth the effort; notwithstanding the fact that the main objective was not achieved. However, the army’s continued insistence that the operation was intended to force Joseph Kony to append his signature to the Juba Peace Accords is annoyingly pedestrian.

PR Failure
Imagine a news conference that would have been kicked off with a statement going like this: Ladies and gentlemen, the political leadership were frustrated by Kony’s recalcitrance and deliberate refusal to sign the Juba Peace Agreements. They asked us to design Plan B. And Operation Lightning Thunders is what we came up with. It was launched today at 8.00am local time. Initial reports from the field say the operation is going on well as planned. For the time being, I will however not give you details of the operational activities as this may jeopardise the safety of the troops on the ground…

UPDF spokespersons don’t seem to have the capacity to engage the media without speaking on policy issues (and sometimes politics) outside the domain of the army. This is because of the fusion of the Ministry of Defence and the Army Spokesperson’s office.

It is difficult to know whether the army spokesperson is speaking as a Ministry of Defence official or as an army official. The Ministry of Defence is a department of the civil administration while the army (UPDF) is part of the armed forces with a military mandate.

Even when something is clearly a policy issue that should be left for the attention of superiors, the Army spokesperson will always hazard an answer. That’s how we ended up with the line: ‘forcing Kony to sign the Juba Peace Accords’.

Achievements
During the course of the operation, the UPDF killed and captured LRA rebel commanders and their men thereby disrupting the command and contracture of the rebel outfit. They have also rescued former abductees who were the rebels’ source of fighters.

The operation has weakened the LRA’s capacity to sustain a serious military offensive. The general assessment is that the LRA would need ‘outside’ support to regenerate its fledgling troops into a fighting force.

These are good achievements. However, there are also secondary achievements of a strategic nature that have accrued from Operation Lightning Thunder.

In the first week of March, President Museveni and President Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo met in Kasese. Something worth noting was their body language. At least the two leaders appeared to have had some good chemistry; a far cry from earlier meetings like the Ngordoto meeting in Tanzania.

So, the other achievement for Operation Lightning Thunder is that it could unwittingly (or wittingly) be the mother of a new entente cordiale between Uganda and her huge natural resources-endowed neighbour. The troop interaction at operational level and the summit meeting of the top leadership are worthy achievements that could be the beginning of a new diplomatic rapprochement.

Regional Dynamics
The withdrawal of Ugandan troops on March 15 followed the February 26 withdraw of the Rwandan troops from Congo. The Rwandans were also on a similar operation code named Umoja Wetu (Our Unity) to dislodge Rwandan rebels with bases in the Congolese provinces of Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu.

The Rwandan troops were withdrawn after protests in Kinshasa over President Kabila’s invitation of foreign troops to operate on Congolese soil. As high a personality as the Speaker of the Lower House in Kinshasa (hitherto a President Kabila ally) made public his discontent over allowing Rwandan troops in DRC. Four Members of Parliament are said to have resigned their seats in protest of the President Kabila’s military co-operation with arch-foes Rwanda.

Uganda still enjoys a reasonable level of acceptance (modest though) in the Kinshasa; seeing as it is that there were no protests against the UPDF’s presence on Congolese soil. Uganda has deliberately (painstakingly though) worked on its relationship with Rwanda.

With the right diplomatic footwork, Uganda is likely to regain the initiative as a central player in the power plays of the Great Lakes region. Perhaps the Garamba Mission was strategically worth it; in spite of its shortcomings. ENDS

About the author: A journalist and a keen watcher of security and political dynamics in the Great Lakes region.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Food crisis

Africa looks on lazily as food shortages surge

We missed on gunpowder, we shouldn’t miss on crop biotechnology

By Asuman Bisiika

Local and international media has constantly reported food shortages and riots over higher food prices. Although the media have blamed it on bad governance in developing countries, food shortages are now like a thread cutting across the entire strata of the development pecking order. However, it is acceptable that Africa’s culture of bad governance and lack of strategic planning compounds food shortages.

That is why there are fears that the now-incessant food shortages could lead to civil unrest; for is it not said that a hungry man is an angry man. Poor masses struggling with food costs driven (whether caused by global oil prices, weather and speculators trading in local market places) is not a good proposition for Africa’s pseudo-democrats.

Over 300 people were arrested in February 2008 in some of the worst violence for years in normally calm, landlocked Burkina, prompting the government to suspend custom duties on staple food imports for three months. But union leaders threatened to call a general strike in April unless prices fall further.

In Cameroon, what started as a taxi drivers' strike over rising fuel costs, metamorphosed into angry riots over the cost of food, high unemployment and plans by President Paul Biya to change the constitution to extend his 25-year rule. Although government said between 25 and 40 people were killed, a human rights group put the toll at over 100.

Famines like the famous Ethiopian one of the 1980s not envisaged. But there is the risk of inflation that threatens the relative economic stability in Africa. Although some governments have introduced price control measure like export caps reduction of custom duties to appease the masses, the people seems to want more than mere tactical responses to what seems to have grown to crisis levels.

Poor food production techniques, coupled with the fact that majority of her people survive on less than $2 a day, Africa is the most vulnerable in this global shortage of food. For Africa, even a small rise food prices is a big because food is the main expenditure in families. It is therefore not surprising that increasing food costs have spawned a rash of violent unrest across Africa. Egypt, Mauritania, Cameron, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mozambique have seen riots over for food costs.

Yet this seems to be a global crisis. A global rice shortage that has seen prices of one of the world's most important staple foods increase by 50% is triggering an international crisis; with countries banning export and threatening serious punishment for hoarders.

Here is a list of some of the recent media reportages on food shortages, rising food prices.

Measures to Curb Asia's Spiraling Food Prices
Governments across Asia have introduced subsidies and have limited sales of staple commodities such as rice, wheat, pork and cooking oil to combat soaring food prices that are pinching consumers at the tills. From India to Indonesia, governments across Asia are scrambling for solutions as it dawns on them that sky-high food prices might not fall any time soon (www.reuters.com) Jan 20, 2008.

Over 1 Million Afghans Face Food Shortage Due to Rising Prices
More than 1 million people in rural Afghanistan are at risk of food shortages due to an increase in prices for staples such as wheat flour and vegetable oil, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said today. (www.un.org) Jan 14, 2008

Soaring Soyabean Price Stirs Anger Among Poor
On Monday, 10,000 Indonesians demonstrated outside the presidential palace in Jakarta after Soybean prices soared more than 50 per cent in the past month and 125 per cent over the past year, leaving huge shortages in markets. (archive.gulfnews.com) Jan 18, 2008

Bread Price Sparks South African Protest
The Congress of SA Trade Unions in the Western Cape is to stage a protest against the price of bread outside Parliament later on Sunday. (www.iol.co.za) Jan 20, 2008

FAO Sees Record World Food Prices Staying
Record food prices are unlikely to ease in the foreseeable future, as high grain demand and low stocks mean the world remains vulnerable to possible food shocks, a United Nations expert said on Monday. (www.guardian.co.uk) Jan 21, 2008

‘Either the price drops or the people will rise’
The government faces a popular uprising, similar to the French Revolution, unless it puts the brakes on the soaring bread price. (www.thetimes.co.za) Jan 19, 2008

With rice stocks said to be at their lowest for 30 years, prices of the grain have increased by more than 10 per cent to record highs and are expected to soar further. Already China, India, Egypt, Vietnam and Cambodia have imposed tariffs or export bans, as it has become clear that world production of rice this year will decline in real terms by 3.5 per cent.

The impact will be felt most keenly by the world's poorest populations (a greater percentage of whom live in Africa) who have become increasingly dependent on the crop as the prices of other grains have become too costly.

Rice is the staple food for more than half the world's population. This is the second year running in which production, which is said to have increased in real terms last year, has failed to keep pace with population growth. The harvest has also been hit by drought, particularly in China and Australia, forcing producers to hoard their crops to satisfy local markets. With over eight billion people relying on rice, the impact of a prolonged rice crisis for the world's poor, threatens to be devastating. The consequences are visible across the globe.

In Bangladesh, government-run outlets that sell subsidised rice are besieged by queues comprised largely of the country's middle classes, who will queue for hours to purchase five kilograms of rice sold at 30 per cent cheaper than on the open market.

In Thailand, where the price for lower-quality rice alone has risen by between $70 and $100 per tonne, Deputy Prime Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan convened a meeting of key officials and traders to discuss imposing minimum export prices to control export volumes and measures to punish hoarders. The meeting follows moves by some larger supermarkets in Thailand to limit purchases of rice by customers.

In the Philippines, activists have warned of the risk of food riots and the National Bureau of Investigation has been called in to raid traders suspected of hoarding rice to push up the prices. Fear is so deep that the country's agricultural secretary, Arthur Yap, asked fast-food restaurants including McDonald's and KFC (which supply a cup of rice with their meals in Asian branches) to halve the amount of rice supplied, so that none would be wasted. In addition, traders who try to stockpile rice have been warned that they face a charge of 'economic sabotage', which in the Philippines carries a life sentence.

The shortage has afflicted India, too: The government banned the export of non-basmati rice and also raised the price of basmati rice that can be exported. Although China has said it is secure in its supplies of rice, the fact that the government has offered to pay farmers more to produce more rice and wheat suggests otherwise.

Fears over the potential impact of the rice crisis have been heightened by estimates by both the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, which has predicted the 3.5 per cent shortfall, and comments from the World Bank president, Robert Zoellick, estimating that ‘33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices’.

There is now a real fear that poor food production and the consequent effect of rising prices is soon to reach level that demands a strategic response. So, what is the strategic response to this potential crisis?

In Uganda, the Parliamentary Caucus of the ruling National Resistance Movement party requested the government to make deliberate pro-active actions to address the ever increasing food cost and its attendant inflationary aspect. The caucus specifically requested the government to waive Value Added Tax on food production.

In Burkina Faso, the government temporarily suspended custom duties on staple food imports. In Egypt, government sought the intervention of the army to help in the supply of subsidised supplies.

In sum, Africa’s response to the world’s food crisis is merely tactical and lacks a long term strategic element of looking beyond the horizon. Which is why, governments should seriously look at the prospect of adopting genetic engineering technology for crop husbandry.

With global haphazard climatic changes, the future seems to lie in genetically modified crops. African political leaders can no longer afford to view biotechnology as a Frankenstein sci-fi fantasy of Western scientists.

The advantages of genetically modified (GM) crops are in themselves a realistic response to the challenges of food production the world over. Biotec crops have improved plant breeding, increased and stabilised yields, improved plant resistance to pests and diseases, enhancement of nutritional content and they can survive abiotic stresses such as drought and cold.

Each year, global population grows by more than 70 million; agriculture is required to produce more food with limited land and water resources. Scientists believe biotechnology holds great potential to help farmers produce more food with fewer resources.

What is holding the mass adoption of GM (biotec is the more acceptable word now) crops back is merely fear of the unknown namely that the long term effects on humans and the environment is unknown.
But after 12 years of use on more than 1.7 billion acres (690.9 million hectares) worldwide without any safety scare, African leaders need to change their attitude about biotec crops.

A 12-year history of safe use should assure leaders that the regulatory regime has been successful. Experts estimate more than 1 trillion meals containing ingredients from biotech crops have been consumed with no reliable documentation of any food safety issues for people or animals. And with a full-blown food crisis on our hands, disadvantages like reduced nutritional value and a difference in taste (which can be improved using the same technology by the way) from naturally grown foods can be ignored.

According to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotec Applications (ISAAA), farmers in 23 countries on six continents are using plant biotechnology to solve difficult crop production challenges and conserve the environment. Over the past decade, they’ve increased the area under biotec crops by more than 10 percent each year, increased their farm income by more than US$34 billion, and achieved economic, environmental and social benefits in crops such as soybeans, canola, corn and cotton.

GM crops are among the most studied and reviewed foods in the world. Using well-established, internationally accepted standards of risk assessment, regulatory authorities worldwide have reviewed all biotech crops now on the market and determined that they pose no more risk than crops produced through traditional breeding methods.

Numerous international organisations also have endorsed the health and environmental safety of biotech crops, including the Royal Society (UK), National Academy of Sciences (USA), the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the European Commission, the French Academy of Medicine, and the American Medical Association.

Over the next decade, biotechnology promises to deliver products that address land and resource limitations, such as improved drought tolerance, saline tolerance and increased yields. The research also will deliver products with direct consumer benefits such as enhanced nutrition, convenience and taste.

Anecdote: On March 28, a report on the global status of commercialised Biotec/GM Crops was launched in Kampala. During the launch, the scientists revealed that scientists at the National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) were genetically engineering bananas (Uganda’s staple food).

In support of biotech crop production, Dr. Tilahun Zeweldu, the Ethiopian director of BIOPSTRA International threw a challenge to the audience: we Africans missed on industrial revolution, ICT revolution, nuclear technology, space avionics and many others. Shall allow ourselves to miss on biotechnology? We all laughed.

Yet Dr. Tilahun had touched a raw nerve on African history of misses. The most critical technology that Africa missed was gunpowder; with which contemporary world history is written. This is the reason why the African continent has been on the receiving end on almost every aspect of social, cultural, political and economic life.

The 2007 report on the global status of the genetically modified (GM) crops revealed that South Africa is the only African country with commercial-level acreage under genetically modified crops. The trend of global climatic changes and the population growth points to a future where the world may fail to feed its people. With that scenario, Dr. Charles Mugoya told their audience that that an escape route lies in the development and usage of technology (biotechnology or otherwise).

Like any new technology, the fears of the negative aspects of the biotec are legitimate and should be addressed. However, a failure on the part of the African leaders to provide a strategic response to the incessant famines and food shortages in Africa is unacceptable.

From 1996 when the genetically modified crops went commercial, farmers have continued to pant more biotec crops every year. In 2007, the global area of biotec crops has increased to a 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres) representing a double-digit growth rate of 12%.

In 2007, the number of countries planting biotec crops increased to 23. In their order of acreage strength, they are: US, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, China, Paraguay and South Africa, Urugay, The Philippines, Australia, Spain, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, France, Honduras, Czec Republic and Portugal, Germany, Slovakia, Romania and Poland.

Incidentally the number of developing countries in the biotec cluib now exceeds that of developed countries. Will this give African leaders some confidence to adopt GM foods? Otherwise we may miss on the use of yet another critical technology like gunpowder. ENDS